Between 2010 and 2020, California essentially lost a congressional district to Texas, with somewhere around three-quarters of a million people moving from the Golden State to the Lone Star State.

An early 2023 survey of likely general election voters illustrates that Senator Kyrsten Sinema’s path to reelection is both complicated and unprecedented.

Earlier this week, we finished up polls of the gubernatorial races in Oregon and Oklahoma—a traditionally safe blue and safe red state, respectively, where local issues have caused the out party to gain some momentum this year.

If you're keeping tabs on elections in more than one state on Tuesday, keep in mind that several of them probably won't be decided that night. More than 31.2 million midterm early vote and mail-in ballots have been cast as of last night.

Residents in the City of Jackson rate Mayor Chokwe Antar Lumumba’s overall job performance rating as a net -8% negative but give him significantly lower marks (-14%) when it comes to his handling of the city’s current water crisis.

South Carolina Governor Henry McMaster is at 50% and leads his Democratic opponent Joe Cunningham by 11 points in his race for re-election. McMaster got 54% in the 2018 contest.

Democrat Gov. Gretchen Whitmer leads Republican challenger Tudor Dixon 51% to 39% in her race to be re-elected Governor of Michigan.

Democrat Cheri Beasley leads Republican Ted Budd 46% to 42% with 12% undecided in the open US Senate seat in NC. This survey comes six weeks after the Dobbs decision that struck down abortion rights secured under Roe v. Wade.

Earlier in the year, we wrote about reasons for optimism in the midterms, citing several experts who opined about trends in redistricting and the problems with many candidates in GOP primaries.

All eyes will be on Pennsylvania this November, where Democrats have the rarest of chances for a pickup in the US Senate and the governor’s race features a “Big Lie” Republican who was subpoenaed by the January 6th Committee.

Pollsters have been quick to measure public opinion in the aftermath of the Dobbs decision invalidating Roe v. Wade. We recently reported on our own survey commissioned by the ACLU that measured attitudes of MS voters—where the litigation began.

A new poll conducted by Blueprint Polling on behalf of the American Civil Liberties Union of Mississippi (ACLU-MS) shows that a majority of Mississippi voters oppose the Supreme Court’s decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization to overturn Roe V. Wade.

We polled Republican voters in Florida to gather insights about the 2024 Presidential election. We found that even with a strong embrace of Trump’s Big Lie, fealty to the former President did not automatically follow. 

Democratic political practitioners know the power of the Big Lie. We’ve seen hard evidence in the results of every GOP primary this midterm cycle. Our survey of Georgia Republicans released earlier this week reminds us of the challenges that progressives face in November and begs the question: Why do so many voters embrace this Electoral Fraud fantasy, given the mountain of evidence to the contrary.

53% of Republicans say they’re more loyal to the Republican Party than to former President Trump. Just 25% put Trump above the Party and 22% say they’re equally loyal to both. Younger Republicans were twice as likely as older Republicans to say they were more loyal to Trump than to the GOP (41% of those under age 45 vs 20% of those 45 and older).

In a hypothetical rematch, former President Donald Trump leads President Joe Biden 44%-38% — the six-point difference matching the 2020 outcome. These results are better for Biden than in all the swing state polling we did earlier in the year. Biden leads Trump 48%-31% among Hispanic voters, while Trump leads 52%-33% among white voters.

Texas voters overwhelmingly support tighter gun purchase statutes. Last week, we asked Texans about state gun purchase laws and recorded a 62% majority in favor of more restrictive gun purchase laws—putting the masses in this traditionally gun-loving state as slightly more pro-gun control than the nation as a whole.

Whether it’s because of the recent leak of the Supreme Court opinion to overturn Roe or the specifics on-the-ground in Arizona, this week’s Blueprint survey has some of the better news we have seen for Democrats since we began these surveys in January.

The Republican Primary for Senate in Ohio is still anyone’s race with a week remaining, with no candidate above 20% and a third of voters still undecided. Our survey completed over the weekend shows State Senator Matt Dolan leading the pack with 18%, followed closely by J.D. Vance at 17%, Mike Gibbons at 13%, and Josh Mandel at 12%.

In a state that President Biden won by 13.5 % just a year and a half ago, the incumbent is dead even with his former rival. While these numbers are surely disappointing for Democrats, Trump has only improved his tally in Colorado by 1.2 % in the last eighteen months. The real story is that Biden’s support has fallen by 12.5% since Election Day.

The President is currently down by double digits in Nevada, a state he won handily in 2020. The COVID hangover, inflation in general, fuel prices and the confusion over Ukraine seem to be taking their toll. As we have seen in other states, a large contingent of voters (almost one in four) are either undecided or expressing support for an unnamed third-party candidate—an obvious sign of dissatisfaction with likely options in the 2024 contest.

The President is currently down by double digits in Georgia, a state he won in 2020. The COVID hangover, inflation in general, and fuel prices seem to be taking their toll. As we have seen in other states, a large contingent of voters (almost one in seven) are either undecided or expressing support for an unnamed third-party candidate—a tell-tale sign of dissatisfaction with likely options in the 2024 contest. 

For the last four presidential elections, the road to the White House went through Michigan. The 2022 midterms in the Wolverine state should be equally as exciting, with first term Governor Gretchen Whitmer on the ballot and congressional redistricting resulting in more competitive seats.

For the last four presidential elections, the road to the White House went through Michigan. The 2022 midterms in the Wolverine state should be equally as exciting, with first term Governor Gretchen Whitmer on the ballot and congressional redistricting resulting in more competitive seats.

Maricopa County (Phoenix and its surrounding suburbs) accounts for roughly three-fifths of Arizona’s voters. After supporting Republicans in every election between 1952 and 2016, the county opted for Kyrsten Sinema for the US Senate seat in 2018 (in spite of a 6% win for the GOP governor) and in 2020 went for Mark Kelly for Senate and Joe Biden for President.

For more than a decade our team members have been reading hundreds of polls each year to develop the messaging for voter contact programs. We found the quality varied widely and upon further investigation, so did pricing and the client’s value for the dollar.