Democrat Gov. Gretchen Whitmer leads Republican challenger Tudor Dixon 51% to 39% in her race to be re-elected Governor of Michigan.
Democrats are hammering Dixon on the abortion issue following the recent Dobbs decision, running ads reminding voters that Dixon opposes abortion in all cases except the life of the mother.
The Supreme Court decision is unpopular with voters: Only 35% of those surveyed support it and 54% oppose it. Only 11% of Michigan voters believe abortion should be illegal in all circumstances.
Michigan promises to be a presidential battleground again in 2024. Polls this month and in February show a Biden-Trump rematch within the margin of error, though Biden appears to have gained somewhat in recent months.
Whitmer With Solid Lead in Governor Race
Whitmer leads and her base is more solid. 47% of voters say they are definitely voting for the Governor. Only 29% of voters are firmly committed to Dixon. With women, Whitmer leads by 22 points. Her lead with men is narrower: 3 points. She leads by 28 points with senior citizens.
Slightly more than one-fourth of Michiganders consider themselves Independent. With these voters, Whitmer leads 50% to 27%. Independents also favor President Biden by 11 points and disagree with the Dobbs decision by a more than 2-to-1 margin.
A Dead Heat in a Presidential Rematch
Trump won Michigan in 2016 but Biden flipped the state in 2020, defeating Trump by a 50.6% to 47.8% margin, or about 150,000 votes. Biden holds a 0.4% lead over Trump in the new poll, well within the margin of error. Biden trailed the former president in our February poll by 2.2 points, also within the margin of error.
In a potential rematch, Biden leads with women by 5 points. Trump leads with men by 4 points. This is a narrower gender gap than we see in many other states. In fact, Biden has narrowed the gap with men from 11 points in February to 5 points today.
The Dobbs Decision Moves Swing Voters Toward Democrats
Only 12% of Michigan voters and 9% of women voters believe abortion should be illegal in all cases. Opposition is consistent across all ages, education, and ethnic groups.
Among voters undecided in the Governor’s race, only 3% say they believe abortion should be illegal in ALL circumstances. Only 7% of Independents believe abortion should be illegal in all circumstances. 42% of Independents believe abortion should be legal in all cases without restriction.
You can find full-weighted crosstabs and toplines here.
Blueprint Polling is a sister company to Chism Strategies that conducts survey research in federal, state, and local elections. This survey of 611 voters on August 15-16, 2022, included landline and mobile phone responses and has a margin of error of +/- 3.96%. Blueprint conducted this research with no input or funding from any candidate, committee, or interest group. For more information call Brad Chism at 601.918.4563.