Democratic Nominees for PA Governor and Senate Enjoy Early Lead While Biden Fades

July 26, 2022

All eyes will be on Pennsylvania this November, where Democrats have the rarest of chances for a pickup in the US Senate and the governor’s race features a “Big Lie” Republican who was subpoenaed by the January 6th Committee. All this in a state that President Biden barely won by 1.3%.

  • President Biden’s lead has vanished since we last polled the state in February. Five months ago, Biden led Trump 45%-40%. Today, the race is a statistical tie (42%/41%). Biden saw his lead among college-educated voters drop from 18% in February to 12% this month, and among women from 15% to 9%.
  • John Fetterman leads Dr. Oz by 9.3% (48.9%-39.6%) in the race for US Senate, and Josh Shapiro leads Doug Mastriano by 11.3% (50.7%-39.4%) in the race for governor. Both Democrats win voters who say they are undecided or voting third party in the presidential race by a 2:1 margin, and both candidates improve on Biden’s vote share among voters under 45 by double digits.
  • Democrats’ big bet on Doug Mastriano looks to be paying off (at least for now). During the state’s primaries, the Pennsylvania Democratic Party spent money on ads to boost the far-right Mastriano over more moderate candidates—a bold move. With this in mind, we asked Shapiro voters and undecideds whether a more moderate Republican would have earned their votes.

Given the option between Shapiro and a moderate Republican, one in five Shapiro voters say they would have either voted for the Republican or are unsure how they would have voted. And 29% of undecideds say they would have cast a ballot for a more moderate GOP candidate over Shapiro. While an unnamed, hypothetical candidate is not the same as a flesh-and-blood politician, it’s clear that the race for governor would be closer at this time if the Republicans had nominated a candidate who appealed to centrists—and given the bad midterm environment, very likely would have tilted in the GOP’s favor.

About Blueprint

Blueprint Polling is a sister company to Chism Strategies that conducts survey research in federal, state, and local elections.  This survey of 712 voters July 19-21, 2022, included landline and mobile phone responses and has a margin of error of +/- 3.67%.  Blueprint conducted this research with no input or funding from any candidate, committee, or interest group. For more information call Brad Chism at 601.918.4563.