Whether it’s because of the recent leak of the Supreme Court opinion to overturn Roe or the specifics on-the-ground in Arizona, this week’s Blueprint survey has some of the better news we have seen for Democrats since we began these surveys in January.
Joe Biden and Donald Trump are tied in Arizona. When we surveyed Maricopa County in January, Biden trailed Trump by 1% in a hypothetical rematch of the 2020 election; today, he leads Trump by 1% in Arizona’s largest county. Biden holds a commanding lead (47%-35%) among voters with a college degree, while Donald Trump leads 44%-37% among voters without a degree. Biden also leads by 5% among self-identified independents.
A fifth of Trump voters and more than half of the Undecided in the 2024 presidential race say a different Republican candidate would offer the best chance of defeating President Biden. 67% of Trump voters think the former President is the strongest potential candidate for 2024, while 12% are unsure. Among those who are undecided in a Trump vs Biden rematch, just 15% say Trump is the best candidate and 32% are unsure. College educated voters, women, and political independents are all much more likely to say a different Republican would be stronger than Trump in the 2024 race.
In the Senate race, Mark Kelly leads all three of his potential Republican opponents by double digits. Kelly leads Lamon by 13.3%, Masters by 16.3%, and Brnovich by 17.1%. At this point in the cycle, Kelly pulls double digit support from Republican voters against each of the three potential GOP nominees and leads by 28.5% among independents. This is almost certainly Kelly’s high water mark in crossover vote. After the sustained attacks that the Republican candidates have been training on one another, the head-to-head match ups against Kelly will reflect the negatives that the intra party contest has generated.
Republicans and independents were more likely than Democrats to be undecided at this point—to be expected prior to the GOP primary. That means that the undecided voters could break away from Kelly in the general. The eventual GOP nominee is likely to recover after the primary fight subsides. Still, given the commanding lead Kelly currently holds, this poll suggests he is in a much stronger position than other recent Democratic candidates we’ve tested.
About Blueprint Polling
Blueprint Polling is a sister company to Chism Strategies that conducts survey research in federal, state, and local elections. This survey of 608 voters May 12-16, 2022, included land line and mobile phone responses and has a margin of error of +/- 3.97%. Blueprint conducted this research with no input or funding from any candidate, committee, or interest group.
For more information, call Brad Chism at 601.918.4563.